Nigeria’s agricultural sector—long a cornerstone of its economy and the largest employer of its population—is facing an escalating crisis marked by climate change and insecurity, severely threatening national food security. These two mutually reinforcing threats are undermining the country’s agricultural productivity and plunging millions into hunger, with grave implications for stability and livelihoods.

Nigeria’s diverse agro-ecological zones have historically supported a wide range of crops. However, climate change is altering this landscape dramatically. The country now experiences erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, increased pest outbreaks, and frequent extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts. Rain-fed agriculture, which constitutes the backbone of Nigerian farming, is especially vulnerable. Staple crops such as maize, rice, and cassava are becoming increasingly susceptible to these climatic disruptions.

In the northern regions, particularly in Borno State, the impacts are compounded by environmental degradation, including desertification and flooding. Recent floods in Borno not only devastated farmlands but also triggered health crises, exacerbated food scarcity, and deepened displacement caused by insurgency. This exemplifies how climate events are reinforcing humanitarian emergencies and security threats.

Insecurity has become another significant obstacle to agricultural productivity. Insurgent activities by Boko Haram and ISWAP in the Northeast, banditry in the Northwest, and farmer-herder conflicts across the Middle Belt have created volatile conditions that drive farmers off their lands. These conflicts have evolved from localised disputes into highly organised, militarised crime networks involving kidnapping, extortion, and systematic destruction of crops. Over 2.2 million people have been displaced, with 1.3 million in the Northcentral and Northwest alone by April 2024.

Benue, Nasarawa and Plateau remain epicentres of pastoral conflict, while states like Kaduna, Katsina and Zamfara suffer from rampant banditry. The crisis has also spread to southern states, including Edo, Ondo, and Oyo, regions that were previously less affected. As pastoralists migrate southward in search of viable grazing land due to desertification, competition over resources has intensified, fuelling fresh rounds of violence. The outcome is farm abandonment, reduced agricultural output, and heightened vulnerability to climate shocks.

Food inflation in Nigeria reached 35.41% in January 2024, driven largely by diminished yields in the Middle Belt—Nigeria’s traditional food basket. This surge in food prices further marginalises vulnerable populations and reflects the broader global trend of climate and conflict-induced food insecurity.

Policy responses have thus far been inadequate. Frameworks such as the National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) have been undermined by corruption, underfunding, and political resistance. Likewise, military interventions have provided only temporary relief, lacking long-term strategic impact.

To reverse the decline in food security, Nigeria must adopt a comprehensive approach. This includes climate adaptation strategies to build resilience in farming communities, conflict resolution and security sector reform to address the root causes of violence, investment in food systems to support storage, transportation, and market access, as well as improved governance and accountability to ensure effective policy implementation.

Without these urgent interventions, Nigeria faces a deepening food crisis, marked by widespread hunger, economic hardship, and growing instability.

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